WTXS31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   300600Z --- NEAR 25.8S 82.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 31 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.8S 82.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z --- 29.2S 85.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 26.7S 83.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1270 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 31
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THAT HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY DISRUPTED THE TC LEAVING ONLY A BROAD LINE OF
CONVECTION WITH ALMOST NO ORGANIZATION OR ANY VISIBLE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONFIRMS A
SIGNIFICANT DISORGANIZATION OF TC 17S OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS GIVING
LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. A 300406Z METOP-A ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE LLCC HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY LEAVING
ONLY A ELONGATED LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 35 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE. TC 17S
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS TRACK SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE AS IT GETS
FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE PASSING TROUGH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z
IS 12 FEET.
//