200300Z POSITION NEAR 25.8S 78.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1180 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND LIMITED CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 192208Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAKLY DEFINED CENTER, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL POSITION WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.0/2.5. TC URIAH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TRANSITORY RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL GROW INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) OF 25 CELSIUS, WHICH WILL RESULT IN TC URIAH DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 20 FEET.
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