070900Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 41.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME RAGGED AND ALMOST FULLY-EXPOSED AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED WESTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 04 DEGREES NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, A WESTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS ALSO PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE WAYWARD CONVECTION. TC 15S IS QUASI-STATIONARY IN A COL AREA AMIDST THREE COMPETING STEERING FORCES: A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST, AND ANOTHER STR LEAF TO THE EAST. THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED TO BELOW THE JTWC WARNING CRITERIA AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REGAIN INTENSITY AND MOMENTUM AT LEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 12 FEET.
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