120300Z POSITION NEAR 10.5N 109.3E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 194 NM EAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MOVED OUT FROM UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION AND IS QUICKLY UNRAVELING, WHILE THE REMNANTS OF THE CONVECTION IS TRACKING WESTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN VIETNAM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AS THE LLCC IS ELONGATING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW, AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE RAPID DECAY OCCURING. TD 22W IS FORECAST TO TRACK QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN THE LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF MOVEMENT, GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 8 FEET.
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