231500Z POSITION NEAR 32.8N 123.6E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 351 NM WEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SWATH OF FRONTAL CLOUDS WITH SPARSE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. A 231249Z METOP- A IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED SHALLOW BANDING, LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND A WEAK FRONTAL STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS FROM RJTD AND PERSISTENCE BASED ON A 230223Z ASCAT IMAGE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 16W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG (25 TO 30 KNOTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TD 16W IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WITHIN MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM, WHICH IS POSITIONED OVER THE WEST SEA AND SOUTH KOREA, THEREFORE, THERE IS CLEAR EVIDENCE THAT EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) HAS COMMENCED. TD FUNG-WONG IS FORECAST TO TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN KOREA PENINSULA AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 12 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 12 FEET.
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