130900Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 64.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NANAUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) CLEARLY SHOWS THE FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS DRIFTED NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) BY OVER 200 NM AND HAS BEGUN TO UNRAVEL. THE SAME ANIMATION SHOWS THE CDO FEATURE REMAINS EXPANSIVE AND DEEP AS STRONG OUTFLOW - GENERATED BY THE TROPICAL EASTERLY JET WINDS - PROVIDE EXCELLENT VENTILATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND FROM RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (40-50 KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 02A IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DECOUPLED FROM ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND DRIFT POLEWARD WITH THE 850 MB FLOW AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE, TYPICAL WITH RAPIDLY WEAKENING VORTICES, HAS BECOME WIDELY SPREAD, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 12 FEET.
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